Andrew Lipsman’s Top 10 Retail Media Predictions for 2026: Marketers Take Note

The Retail Media Boom Faces New Realities

Retail media spend is exploding, with forecasts pegging the global market at $165 billion by 202671. That's up from current levels, driven by e-commerce giants like Amazon and Walmart. But as this channel matures, the low-hanging fruit is gone. Advertisers must navigate saturation, measurement hurdles, and emerging formats to squeeze out real value.

Andrew Lipsman, a leading analyst in the space, just dropped his top 10 predictions for 2026. Drawing from his deep dives into RMNs (retail media networks), he warns that the sector's easy growth era is over. Instead, expect intense competition and a push toward sophisticated strategies. Why should marketers care? Because retail media now ties directly into social commerce and performance marketing, where quick wins can boost ROAS by double digits.

Let's break down these predictions and what they mean for your campaigns.

In-Store Media Heats Up: The Next Big Battleground

Forget scrolling feeds—eyes will lock on physical shelves in 2026. Lipsman predicts in-store retail media will become a fierce arena, especially for CPG brands. Retailers like Kroger, Albertsons, Walmart, and Instacart are rolling out screens and networked displays at scale, inspired by European pioneers such as Tesco.

This shift makes sense. Shoppers make 70% of purchase decisions in-store, and targeted digital signage can nudge those impulses. For marketers, it's a chance to blend online targeting with offline impact. Take CVS in the US: Their pilot programs showed a 15% uplift in basket size from dynamic endcap ads.

But competition will be brutal. National budgets will chase these spots, driving up costs. Brands that integrate in-store media early, using first-party data for personalization, will win. Think real-time promos based on loyalty app history—it's the future of hyper-local marketing.

Performance TV Hits a Wall Despite Massive Scale

Connected TV is going performance-first, and Amazon Ads will snag at least 50% of ad-supported CTV inventory by 202667. This closed-loop setup lets brands track TV views straight to sales, pulling in big national spenders.

Sounds great, right? Not so fast. Lipsman flags ROAS roadblocks: Premium CPMs and over-reliance on last-touch attribution could stall adoption. "ROAS—and particularly last-touch ROAS—should never be the metric of success for measuring the effect of TV campaigns," says Adam Epstein, founder of GigiTV67. He pushes for first-touch models, incrementality tests, and marketing mix modeling (MMM) to capture TV's true halo effect.

Marketers, don't ditch TV yet. Layer it with retail data for holistic views. A case in point: Procter & Gamble's TV-retail integrations lifted overall ROI by 20% in pilots. The key? Balance short-term metrics with long-game brand building to justify the investment.

Why Traditional MMMs Are Failing Retail Media

Marketing mix models, once the gold standard for budget allocation, are cracking under digital fragmentation. Lipsman argues they undervalue retail media compared to TV or Meta, because they're built for a simpler era of GRPs and mass reach.

Newer incrementality tools paint a different picture: RMNs often top the charts for efficiency. "MMMs may still have a purpose, but it's not for retail media," notes Meghan Corroon, CEO of Clerdata67. Brand execs echo this, calling MMMs too slow and not granular enough for today's pace.

For marketers, this means rethinking tools. Switch to causal modeling for real-time insights, and you'll spot retail media's edge—targeted audiences at the point of intent. Unilever's shift to 50% of its budget on social and creators shows the direction: Data-driven, not legacy-locked.

Creators and Social Video: The New RMN Power Players

Expect RMNs to double down on creators. Walmart Connect's creator initiatives will spark a wave, with networks offering end-to-end activations using first-party data to match influencers and products.

This ties beautifully into social commerce. Layering TikTok videos on Amazon campaigns can boost conversions and ROAS by double digits67. Lipsman sees this as central to breakthrough creative, filling gaps in content strategy.

"The missing link continues to be a content strategy. Creator video fills RMNs’ need for creative assets," says Leah Logan, VP of Retail Media at Inmar Intelligence67. For brands, it's about cohesion across channels—on-site, off-site, CTV, even in-store.

Example: Ulta Beauty's 3P marketplace paired with creator hauls drove a 25% sales spike. Marketers, prioritize viral, shoppable content to bridge discovery and purchase.

Other Key Shifts: From Agentic AI to Challenger Brands

Lipsman's list doesn't stop there. Here's a quick rundown of the rest:

• •3P Marketplaces Fuel New RMNs: Amazon and Walmart hold 85% of the US 3P space, but newcomers like Best Buy and Lowes will monetize mid-tail advertisers for diversified revenue.
• •Digital Endcaps Rise: As sponsored products saturate, non-click video ads on-site and in-store will shine for new-to-brand wins, like Tesco's UK rollouts.
• •Agentic Commerce Fizzles: AI shopping agents won't dent e-comm traffic; instead, they'll add incremental queries.
• •Experiential Formats Spotlight Lifetime Value: Move beyond online ROAS to in-store events and samples that build long-term loyalty, à la Sam's Club.
• •Challengers Gain Ground: In downturns, nimble brands will use RMNs for quick tests and conquesting, outpacing incumbents stuck in retargeting.

What This Means for Your 2026 Strategy

Global ad spend tops $1 trillion in 2026, with retail media claiming a bigger slice68. But success hinges on adaptation. If you're still leaning on traditional MMMs or ignoring in-store, you're leaving money on the table.

Start by auditing your mix: Allocate 20-30% to experimental RMN formats like creators and endcaps. Partner with networks offering robust measurement—demand incrementality proofs. And watch Unilever: Their creator pivot isn't a one-off; it's the blueprint for demand creation.

The bottom line? Retail media rewards the bold. As Lipsman puts it, the easy phase is done—now it's about smart plays in a crowded field. Track these trends, test relentlessly, and position your brand for the $165B surge. What's your first move?