Retail Media's Meteoric Rise: Surpassing TV Ad Spend in 2026?

Retail Media Ad Spend Set to Overtake Linear and Streaming TV in 2026

The ground is shifting beneath the advertising world, and retail media networks are leading the charge. New research from WARC Media indicates a seismic change on the horizon: retail media ad investment is forecast to surpass the combined spend of linear and streaming TV by 2026. This isn't just a minor tremor; it's a fundamental realignment of where advertising dollars are flowing.

The numbers paint a stark picture of this ongoing surge. Advertising investment in the retail media channel is projected to exceed a staggering $200 billion globally by 2027. For the current year, retail media ad spend is already estimated to hit $174.9 billion, marking a substantial 13.7% increase year-over-year. Looking ahead, growth is expected to continue robustly, rising another 12.4% in 2026 to reach $196.7 billion. This sustained momentum signals that retail media is no longer a niche, emerging channel but a dominant force.

Why the Explosive Growth?

So, what's fueling this remarkable expansion? Several factors are converging to make retail media an increasingly attractive proposition for brands:

• •Captive Audiences & Intent Data: Retail platforms, whether online or in-store, host consumers with clear purchase intent. Brands can leverage this data to serve highly targeted ads precisely when a shopper is considering a purchase. Think of it as advertising at the point of decision.
• •Closed-Loop Measurement: Unlike many traditional channels, retail media offers robust measurement capabilities. Advertisers can often directly link ad exposure to sales conversions within the retailer's ecosystem, providing a clearer ROI.
• •Enhanced Product Discovery: For consumers, retail media ads can serve as a helpful way to discover new products or promotions directly on the sites and apps they already use for shopping. It streamlines the path from inspiration to purchase.
• •Retailer Investment: Retailers themselves are recognizing the profit potential. By offering ad space on their platforms, they can monetize their customer data and digital real estate, creating a powerful new revenue stream.

The Shifting Media Landscape

For years, TV – both linear and streaming – has commanded a significant portion of the advertising budget. However, fragmented viewership, the rise of ad-free streaming tiers, and challenges in granular measurement have begun to erode its dominance. Retail media, conversely, offers a compelling alternative by tapping into the digital shopping journey.

Consider the implications. Brands that have historically relied on broad reach through television may need to re-evaluate their strategies. The ability to connect ad spend directly to measurable sales on platforms like Amazon, Walmart, or Target offers an efficiency that is hard to ignore. It's about meeting consumers where they are actively browsing and buying.

Key Players and Emerging Trends

Major retailers are rapidly expanding their retail media capabilities. Amazon, a seasoned player, continues to refine its ad offerings. Walmart Connect, Target's Roundel, and Kroger Precision Marketing are all investing heavily in technology and talent to enhance their advertising platforms. We're also seeing a proliferation of smaller and mid-sized retailers exploring their own media networks.

Furthermore, the integration of AI is poised to supercharge retail media. AI can optimize ad creative, personalize targeting in real-time, and provide deeper insights into consumer behavior. This technological advancement will only make retail media more effective and efficient for advertisers.

The Data Doesn't Lie:

• •$174.9 billion: Estimated global retail media ad spend for 2025.
• •13.7%: Year-over-year growth in retail media ad spend for 2025.
• •12.4%: Projected year-over-year growth for retail media ad spend in 2026.
• •By 2026: Retail media ad investment is forecast to overtake combined linear and streaming TV spend.

What This Means for Marketers

This seismic shift demands a strategic response from marketers:

• •Prioritize Retail Media Integration: If you're not already exploring retail media, now is the time. Start with the platforms where your target audience shops most frequently.

• •Leverage First-Party Data: Understand how to utilize the data available within retail ecosystems. This is key to unlocking effective targeting and measurement.

• •Invest in Measurement & Analytics: Ensure you have the tools and expertise to track performance and measure the ROI of your retail media campaigns. Look for closed-loop reporting.

• •Experiment with Creative: Retail media ads often benefit from creatives that are relevant to the shopping context. Test different formats and messaging.

• •Stay Informed: The retail media landscape is evolving rapidly. Keep abreast of new platform features, data insights, and best practices.

As WARC Media's projections suggest, the advertising spend battlefield is changing dramatically. Television's long reign is being challenged by the rise of retail media networks, offering a more direct line to engaged consumers and measurable sales. Brands that adapt and embrace this shift will be best positioned to win in the evolving marketing economy.